Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-22

LAD @ PHI

Home plate: Brian O'Nora

“The plate grew a few inches after the first pitch.”

B+
Umpire Grade
93.9% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, PHI
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Brian O'Nora called the 165 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 155 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Andy Pages — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Rafael Marchán — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Freddie Freeman — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Dalton Rushing — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.23▲6 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Kyle Tucker vs Seth Johnson
  2. 2-0.21▲8 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Teoscar Hernández vs Orion Kerkering
  3. 3-0.20▲5 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Tommy Edman vs Aaron Nola

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Andy Pages — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Rafael Marchán — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Freddie Freeman — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Dalton Rushing — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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