Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-28

PHI @ MIA

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.2% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, PHI
1
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 139 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 131 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Garrett Stubbs — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Bryce Harper — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Heriberto Hernández — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Garrett Stubbs — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Xavier Edwards — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.397 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Javier Sanoja vs José Alvarado
  2. 2-0.285 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Graham Pauley vs Aaron Nola
  3. 3+0.203 · 2-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Garrett Stubbs vs Sandy Alcantara

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Garrett Stubbs — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Bryce Harper — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Heriberto Hernández — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Garrett Stubbs — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Xavier Edwards — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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