Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-31

SF @ SD

Home plate: Chris Guccione

The zone kept its promises.

A
Umpire Grade
95.1% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, SF
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Chris Guccione called the 143 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 136 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Freddy Fermin — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Drew Cavanaugh — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Jesus Rodriguez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.394 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Heliot Ramos vs Yuki Matsui
  2. 2+0.239 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Jesus Rodriguez vs Germán Márquez
  3. 3+0.136 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Luis Arraez vs Germán Márquez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Freddy Fermin — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Drew Cavanaugh — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Jesus Rodriguez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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