Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-04

STL @ NYY

Home plate: Alex Tosi

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A+
Umpire Grade
97.0% accurate
0.0
Run Favor
runs, STL
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Alex Tosi called the 135 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 131 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Austin Wells — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Pedro Pagés — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Ben Rice — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Heliot Ramos — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Nathan Church — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.304 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Ben Rice vs Hunter Dobbins
  2. 2-0.214 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Ben Rice vs Hunter Dobbins
  3. 3+0.205 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Masyn Winn vs Ryan Weathers

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Austin Wells — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Pedro Pagés — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Ben Rice — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Heliot Ramos — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Nathan Church — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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