Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-14

STL @ CHC

Home plate: Paul Clemons

Textbook top to bottom — a quiet masterclass.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, CHC
1
ABS Overturns
of 1 reviewed

What this shows — how Paul Clemons called the 160 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 153 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.284 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Alec Burleson vs Clay Holmes
  2. 2-0.212 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Masyn Winn vs Clay Holmes
  3. 3-0.138 · 1-0 ball called strike
    JJ Wetherholt vs Ryan Zeferjahn

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

1 pitch went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 0 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carson Kelly — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 0 of 1 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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