Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-16

STL @ CHC

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

Quietly excellent. The best umpiring is the kind you forget was there.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, STL
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 183 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 175 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Miguel Amaya — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Michael Conforto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Pete Crow-Armstrong — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.286 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Joshua Báez vs Aaron Civale
  2. 2-0.211 · 3-0 ball called strike
    JJ Wetherholt vs Edward Cabrera
  3. 3+0.214 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Masyn Winn vs Edward Cabrera

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Miguel Amaya — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Michael Conforto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Pete Crow-Armstrong — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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