Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-13

NYM @ NYY

Home plate: Willie Traynor

“The zone kept its promises.”

A
Umpire Grade
95.5% accurate
0.9
Run Favor
runs, NYM
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Willie Traynor called the 134 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 128 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: José Caballero — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Cody Bellinger — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.69▲3 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Francisco Lindor vs Cam Schlittler
  2. 2-0.20▼5 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Austin Wells vs Christian Scott
  3. 3+0.13▼4 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Luis García Jr. vs Christian Scott

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2José Caballero — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Cody Bellinger — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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