Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-23

STL @ PIT

Home plate: John Bacon

“Off the corner was close enough tonight.”

B
Umpire Grade
92.0% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, PIT
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how John Bacon called the 151 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 139 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jake Mangum — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Rafael Flores Jr. — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Leo Bernal — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.69▲8 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Masyn Winn vs Antwone Kelly
  2. 2+0.21▲6 · 3-0 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Masyn Winn vs Khristian Curtis
  3. 3-0.20▼5 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Jared Triolo vs Matthew Liberatore

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jake Mangum — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Rafael Flores Jr. — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Leo Bernal — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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