Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-12

MIN @ TOR

Home plate: Derek Thomas

Called a fair game and let the players decide it.

A
Umpire Grade
96.7% accurate
0.9
Run Favor
runs, TOR
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Derek Thomas called the 153 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 148 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Victor Caratini — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: James Outman — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Trevor Larnach — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.289 · 1-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Trevor Larnach vs Jeff Hoffman
  2. 2+0.235 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Taj Bradley
  3. 3+0.201 · 2-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Jesús Sánchez vs Taj Bradley

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Victor Caratini — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2James Outman — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Trevor Larnach — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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