Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-17

KC @ STL

Home plate: Ryan Wills

One of those nights the challenge system was invented for.

B-
Umpire Grade
91.3% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, KC
2
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Ryan Wills called the 126 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 115 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Maikel Garcia — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Salvador Perez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.399 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Lane Thomas vs Justin Bruihl
  2. 2-0.198 · 2-0 ball called strike
    José Fermín vs Daniel Lynch IV
  3. 3-0.133 · 1-1 ball called strike
    JJ Wetherholt vs Stephen Kolek

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 0 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Maikel Garcia — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Salvador Perez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

Paste the link anywhere — the card previews on its own. Or take it with you.

Post on X