Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-15

NYM @ CIN

Home plate: Mark Wegner

“Textbook top to bottom — a quiet masterclass.”

A
Umpire Grade
96.4% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, NYM
1
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Mark Wegner called the 166 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 160 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: JJ Bleday — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: A.J. Ewing — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.23▼2 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Sal Stewart vs Jonathan Pintaro
  2. 2+0.13▲7 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Eric Wagaman vs Caleb Ferguson
  3. 3+0.10▲5 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Francisco Alvarez vs Chase Burns

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1JJ Bleday — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Tyler Stephenson — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4A.J. Ewing — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.