Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-28

HOU @ LAA

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

Two dugouts, and only one of them smiling.

D
Umpire Grade
88.3% accurate
1.4
Run Favor
runs, HOU
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 137 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 121 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Logan O'Hoppe — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Christian Vázquez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Logan O'Hoppe — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.395 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Yordan Alvarez vs Reid Detmers
  2. 2+0.281 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Christian Walker vs Reid Detmers
  3. 3+0.132 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Jo Adell vs Peter Lambert

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Logan O'Hoppe — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Christian Vázquez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Logan O'Hoppe — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 0 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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