Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-08

AZ @ KC

Home plate: Ryan Wills

“The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.”

B
Umpire Grade
93.0% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, KC
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Ryan Wills called the 185 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 172 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Nolan Arenado — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.39▲10 · 2-2 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Nolan Arenado vs Steven Cruz
  2. 2-0.21▼8 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Salvador Perez vs Jonathan Loáisiga
  3. 3+0.21▼10 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Michael Massey vs Blake Walston

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Nolan Arenado — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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