Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

PHI @ ATL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.6% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, ATL
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 148 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 140 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Sean Murphy — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.394 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Mike Yastrzemski vs Aaron Nola
  2. 2-0.214 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Alec Bohm vs Chris Sale
  3. 3+0.138 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Ozzie Albies vs Alex McFarlane

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Sean Murphy — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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