Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

PHI @ ATL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.”

A-
Umpire Grade
94.6% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, ATL
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 148 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 140 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Sean Murphy — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▼4 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Mike Yastrzemski vs Aaron Nola
  2. 2-0.21▲4 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Alec Bohm vs Chris Sale
  3. 3+0.13▼8 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Ozzie Albies vs Alex McFarlane

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Sean Murphy — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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