Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-20

BOS @ TB

Home plate: Adam Beck

“Pitchers earned every strike the hard way.”

C+
Umpire Grade
90.8% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, BOS
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Adam Beck called the 120 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 109 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Nick Fortes — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Caleb Durbin — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Nick Fortes — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲5 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Jarren Duran vs Griffin Jax
  2. 2-0.28▲1 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Mickey Gasper vs Griffin Jax
  3. 3+0.13▲8 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Nate Eaton vs Steven Matz

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Nick Fortes — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Caleb Durbin — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Nick Fortes — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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