Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
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Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-02

LAD @ STL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.”

A-
Umpire Grade
94.2% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, LAD
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 156 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 147 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.23▲6 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Freddie Freeman vs Michael McGreevy
  2. 2+0.20▲7 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Max Muncy vs Ryne Stanek
  3. 3+0.20▲8 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Shohei Ohtani vs JoJo Romero

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Iván Herrera — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.