Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-02

LAD @ STL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.6% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, LAD
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 156 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 146 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.236 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Freddie Freeman vs Michael McGreevy
  2. 2+0.207 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Max Muncy vs Ryne Stanek
  3. 3+0.208 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Shohei Ohtani vs JoJo Romero

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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