Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-03

PHI @ MIA

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

The zone kept its promises.

A
Umpire Grade
96.5% accurate
0.5
Run Favor
runs, PHI
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 145 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 140 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jesús Luzardo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Agustín Ramírez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Felix Reyes — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.217 · 3-0 strike called ball· challenged
    Bryson Stott vs Tyler Phillips
  2. 2+0.136 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Justin Crawford vs Tyler Phillips
  3. 3-0.137 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Christopher Morel vs Jesús Luzardo

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jesús Luzardo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Agustín Ramírez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Felix Reyes — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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