Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-13

STL @ ATH

Home plate: Chad Whitson

Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.1% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, ATH
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Chad Whitson called the 145 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 135 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Pedro Pagés — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: José Fermín — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.395 · 2-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Jonah Heim vs Matthew Liberatore
  2. 2-0.301 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Alec Burleson vs J.T. Ginn
  3. 3+0.191 · 2-0 strike called ball
    Alec Burleson vs J.T. Ginn

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jonah Heim — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Pedro Pagés — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3José Fermín — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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