Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-25

TOR @ BOS

Home plate: Paul Clemons

Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, BOS
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Paul Clemons called the 113 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 108 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jarren Duran — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Brandon Valenzuela — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Wilyer Abreu — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.391 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Anthony Seigler vs Dylan Cease
  2. 2-0.399 · 2-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Wilyer Abreu vs Dylan Cease
  3. 3+0.307 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Willson Contreras vs Dylan Cease

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jarren Duran — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Brandon Valenzuela — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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