Fever Report No. 045 · 2026-11-09
Third on the Fade Board
Jonny DeLuca moved up four spots on the fade board this window. His batting line is buying more than his contact sells.
The number is 0.0814. That is Jonny DeLuca's park-adjusted luck gap, and it moved him from No. 7 to No. 3 on the fade board this window. On a board that ranks regression flags, moving up four spots means the engine's case got stronger. His results ran further ahead of his contact.
His EV95 of 106.85 is above the league median of 105.8. The bat produces real contact. But across 271 balls in play, that contact does not support a .266 average, 11 home runs, and a .729 OPS. His results are outrunning his contact by more than 99 percent of the 406 qualified hitters the engine tracks. Gaps like his tend to close from above. The reading on tonight is PAID.
The person
He is from Thousand Oaks, California, a Dodgers fan who grew up with a passion for surfing and skateboarding. He was a 5-foot-9, 165-pound freshman at Agoura High when his coach, Anthony Chevrier, told him and his father that Jonny would play in the big leagues. His father giggled at the prediction. Chevrier said the physical tools, intangibles, and decision-making skills were already evident.
The Twins drafted him in the 39th round in 2017. He did not sign, went to the University of Oregon, and the Dodgers took him in the 25th round in 2019. He debuted June 7, 2023, at 24. When he first met Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, Roberts was caught off guard by a hoop earring dangling from DeLuca's left ear. The piercing was the result of a friendly wager, a story Roberts found more interesting than the young outfielder's batting line.
Weeks before the Rays acquired him, DeLuca attended a friend's wedding in Tampa and came back raving about the St. Petersburg area. When trade rumors to Tampa Bay surfaced, he welcomed the move. He is 28 now, 5-foot-10 and 195, a right-handed outfielder who has played 67 games in right, 49 in center, and 4 in left this season. His sprint speed is 29.4 feet per second, and he has 40 career stolen bases.
The signal
His EV95 trace across the season shows a decline and a recovery. He opened at 108.1 on April 13, held above 107 through mid-May, then dropped through the summer. By July 20 he was at 102.8. He climbed back to 108.5 by September 21. The season-long number settled at 106.85. The luck gap grew from 0.0748 to 0.0814 this window.
The market
Our wire searched for fan chatter and found none.
His 2024 Topps Chrome Rookie Autograph PSA 10 jumped from $40.68 on October 31 to $50.00 on November 2 and held there through November 8, a 23 percent move. Raw cards are at $4.79.
Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.
The record
What would prove this piece wrong: if his park-adjusted luck gap remains at or above 0.0814 by next season's All-Star break, the regression did not arrive and the fade flag was noise. We will know at the break.
Biographical details per baseball-reference.com, the Los Angeles Times, MLB.com, The Athletic, and tampabay28.com. All performance data: MLB StatsAPI via the FVR engine.