Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
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Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-10

NYY @ WSH

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“Reliable as a Tuesday: no complaints, no headlines.”

A
Umpire Grade
95.0% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, NYY
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 161 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 153 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Keibert Ruiz — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Austin Wells — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Austin Wells — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Keibert Ruiz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Austin Wells — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.28▲1 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Paul Goldschmidt vs Carson Palmquist
  2. 2-0.13▼8 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Jacob Young vs David Bednar
  3. 3+0.13▼8 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Jorbit Vivas vs David Bednar

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Keibert Ruiz — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Austin Wells — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Austin Wells — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Keibert Ruiz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Austin Wells — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.